The media has been predicting an Obama win for weeks now and the rhetoric has only increased as the economy has floundered and the election grows ever near. The main stream media and the media elites from Katie Couric to Peggy Noonan and almost everyone else in between have consistently painted the picture that McCain has no hope of winning. Of course the media points to their polls and their electoral maps as the indisputable evidence of a landslide Obama win but who produces these polls? The answer: the same media outlets that have been cheerleading for the Obama campaign since the primaries. The truth is that these polls while interesting to follow are not an accurate gage of the American electorate. Ever since 1976 the polling data provided by the major pollsters has proven itself to be unreliable and inaccurate. Gerald Ford was down by 30 pts to Jimmy Carter in 1976 going into the last weeks of the election in the end Carter won by only 1 point. In 1980 Ronald Reagan was down by 5 Pts to incumbent Jimmy Carter going into Election Day but after the votes were tallied Reagan had won by 10 pts. This same phenomenon has been seen in every presidential election since '76' in every case the polls favor the Democrat and tend to skew the state of the race.

     More recently the pollsters predicted a Gore win in 2000 and a Kerry win in 2004 as history has proven these polls did not paint an accurate picture of how the American electorate would vote at all. The current polling data shows Obama up by 5 pts (RCP average) and the recent trend is that the polls continue to tighten. Obama himself recently began warning his supporters not to be over confident about this election; this indicates that his campaign is concerned that they might actually lose the election. If one looks at the polling data over the past 30 plus years and recognizes that the Democratic candidate has a built in 6-10 point artificial advantage in the polls, it appears that McCain is not just in this thing but is probably winning and will win on November 4th. In addition the Bradley effect is expected to result in Obama losing between 2-6% of the vote on Election Day to voters who will make a racially charged decision. While I abhor racism there is no doubt that a small percentage of the electorate has an unfair prejudice against the black community and that will have some impact on this race.

     The reality is that even in the primaries the polls have proven to be decidedly unreliable. Going into the New Hampshire and Pennsylvania primaries Obama had comfortable leads only to lose in both cases to Hillary Clinton. In New Hampshire the polls indicated Obama was up by 10 pts the day before the primary but Hillary won by several points. What all of this suggests is that this election is far from over and that McCain may actually have an advantage. The media will continue to paint a picture of an overwhelming Obama lead going into the election but what they say and what is really happening may be to very different things. In the end history is on McCain's side. America is a center right leaning country and McCain is a center right leaning candidate much to the chagrin of right leaning republicans who wish he would act more like a conservative. Obama is a far left democrat who is part of a radical socialist wing of his party. In the end Americans will vote based upon their own beliefs, values, and ideology and Obama is too extreme for mainstream America. History proves that Americans don't elect far left liberal candidates to the presidency, from George McGovern to Michael Dukakis and John Kerry Americans have always been distrustful of those who preach a socialist gospel of change.

     On November 4th America will vote and make John McCain the 44th president of the United States but they won't be voting FOR John Sidney McCain as much as they will be voting AGAINST Barrack Hussein Obama. So while the media touts the great virtues of Obama and moves to coronate "the one" or "that one" as McCain called him, don't believe the spin for a minute, because John McCain will win.