A lot has changed in the past year! A year ago the economy was much stronger, it was much easier to find a job, and generally speaking people felt pretty good about where our nation was headed. It is amazing how quickly things can change. As I write this there are people all throughout our region and our nation who have been laid off or can't find work, others who are retired and on fixed incomes have watched as their retirement accounts and 401k's have shrunk to a fraction of what they were just twelve months ago. Yes indeed, these are trying times and many of us are concerned about what the future may bring. In the midst of all the chaos and uncertainty that most of us currently face it is easy to become frustrated and even fearful about what the future holds.

     But we need to remember that it could be worse. That's right! It could be much worse and although our lives may have been disrupted by the failing job market or the falling stock market we need to remember that as bad as things may be now we are fortunate to have what we do. As Americans we enjoy a standard of living that many can only dream about. Many people in third world countries from Mexico to India would give nearly anything  to simply live in this country; let alone own a home or have a regular job in America, the land of opportunity. While I sympathize with the difficulties that all Americans face in this time of difficulty, I believe that we need to count our blessings, especially now when we are faced with great challenges like the ones we face today.

     I know it can be hard to count your blessings when you can't figure out how you are going to pay the bills but we need to try. The reality is that from air conditioning to shoes on our feet and a thousand others luxuries we enjoy as Americans we have it better than 90% of the world and that is something we ought to be very thankful for. This holiday season there may not be as many gifts under the tree, there may not be as much food in the cupboard, and there may not be as much money in your bank account but there is still plenty to be thankful for. Look around you and consider how much God has blessed you this year and be thankful! Happy Thanksgiving and Merry Christmas!

    If you follow politics, even marginally so, you have heard by now that Obama will be our next president. I mean, why even have the election? Because it is most certainly nothing more than a mere formality at this point, right? If you listen to the main stream media this is the message that seems to be consistently proclaimed. Now I will admit the majority of the polling data seems to support these conclusions but the question that must be asked is can we trust the polls? As I mentioned in a previous blog, historically the polls have been slanted by 6-10 pts in favor of the Democratic candidate ever since 1976. Now that hasn't always meant a GOP win but it has revealed a fundamental flaw in the polling methods used for the past three decades. History shows that the polling data is consistently wrong and therefore cannot be trusted.

     I began to research this conclusion myself to see if my conclusion was a warranted one and here is what I found. In 2004 Kerry was projected to beat George W. Bush in a landslide in the electoral college. The electoral prediction that was widely accepted by major media immediately before the 2004 presidential election was this:

Kerry 311 Bush 227

This prediction was based upon the projection that the youth vote would turn out in record numbers and the un-popular Iraq war would turn the election into a referendum on George W. Bush. But look at what actually happened when everything was said and done it was Bush 286 Kerry 252 and Bush was re-elected. In other words the pundits and pollsters were wrong about the awarding of 59 electoral votes. (see the Princeton University study below). What is fascinating about an analysis of the 2004 election is that we are hearing the same thing from the media now that we did 4 years ago.

     We are told that the youth vote will win the election for Obama, we are told that the Black vote will win the election for Obama, and we are even told that Hispanics and white women will push Obama on to victory. The problem is that the youth vote has NEVER materialized in any election in US history, even during the 60's, the black vote has always strongly favored Democrats(no change here), white women and Hispanics are starting to move towards McCain in several polls and in the end every major pollster is using a much different election turnout model than what is found historically. Ultimately, if the media hype fails to become reality Obama may actually lose this election just like Kerry did four years ago. I think that the polls have been distorted by failed methods and in some cases an outright dishonest approach in order to discourage conservatives and suppress the Republican vote. Only time will tell but I find it quite telling that the RCP polling average of electoral votes is very similar to the projections of 2004 calling 311 Electoral votes for Obama.

     In the end this is going to be a close race regardless of what the media says, all I have to say is don't believe the propaganda, McCain can still win and I think he will.

 

2004 Election Analysis Princeton University

THE 2004 ANALYSIS

Median state poll outcome, decided voters: Kerry 252 EV, Bush 286 EV (?39 EV MoE)

Popular Margin among decided voters : Bush leads Kerry by 0.8%

State poll median with speculative undecided assignment: Kerry 283 EV, Bush 255 EV

Electoral prediction with turnout: Kerry 311 EV, Bush 227 EV

Real electoral result: Kerry 252 EV, Bush 286 EV.