This evening nearly 60 million Americans will watch the long awaited VP presidential debate. Normally a VP debate would be fairly insignificant in the grand scheme of the election cycle, after all most people are squarely focused on the top of the presidential tickets. But this year is different.  The GOP vice presidential candidate is a women and that has completely changed the political landscape for the 2008 election. Millions will watch the debates carefully tomorrow to learn a little more about Sarah Palin and to try and determine whether or not she is competent and capable enough to serve as the VP or in a time of national tragedy maybe even as president.

Since Palin's speech at the Republican convention a month ago Palin has been a lightning rod and a figure of tremendous controversy. People tend to either love Palin or loathe her and their are few opinions inbetween. Her candidacy has energized the conservative base of the Republican party and stirred up the far left of the Democratic party like no VP candidate in American history. Palin has been on the end of relentless attacks and smears since joining McCain on the GOP ticket and as a result the McCain campaign has chosen to limit her exposure to the national media. To make matters worse Palin has been less than impressive on two or three ocassions in mainstream media interviews. In fact two or her exchanges with Katie Couric were an embarrasment to the McCain campaign.

So the question for the GOP is which Sarah Palin will show up tomorrow night? Will it be the strong and confident mother of five who eats mooseburgers and tackles corruption in government or will it be the timid and nervous rookie who couldn't answer a question about her own campaign or provide an example of her running mates regulatory credentials? That remains to be seen. But I would bet that the answer would be the former rather than the latter. I suspect that Palin has been handled poorly by her campaign staff and that she will be freed to be herself tomorrow night. The interesting aspect of this situation is that debates are won based purely upon perception rather than on substance. And low expectations for a debate candidate are an advantage to him or her almost without expcetion.

The presidential debates on Friday are a perfect example of this. Substantively McCain clearly won the last presidential debate but due to his tremendous experience in foreign policy the public perception was that Obama won because he was able to hold his own with an expert like McCain. In addition viewers made comments about how Obama looked younger and more energetic while McCain appeared even older than he is on television during the debate. The public perception of the average American seems to give Palin a distinct advantage in this debate regardless of what the media says. First people expect very little from Palin after her most recent interaction with the press. Second Biden has been in the US Senate for thirty years and has a lifetime of experience. In addition Sarah Palin is young, energetic, and vibrant while Biden is in his golden years not much younger than McCain. If the factors from the last debate apply to the VP debate Biden may have a serious problem.

It is also good to note that Palin was terribly underestimated in her govenors race three years ago by her opponents and proved herself an able and capable debater against some seasoned and polished politicians. I think that very few people give Palin any shot at beating Biden in this debate and that makes her very dangerous. Palin has a razor sharp sense of humor and can be down right surgically precise with her jabs. If she is well prepared for this debate she may cause Biden some real problems. But the converse is also possible. It is possible that Palin was brought into the game too late without adequate preparation and if that is the case she will implode infront of 60 million plus viewers tomorrow evening. But I don't believe that is the case. In fact I think that maybe the reason Palin struggled in her previous interviews is due to the fact that she is working so hard on preparing for her debate with Biden. In addition her lack of media exposure creates a problem of Biden....he knows very little about her because there is so little to reference. So the question is will Palin be an asset or a liability for McCAin?Will we see Palin power tomorrow night on display for the entire world to see? Or will we watch a huge problem unfold for the GOP? I don't know but is sure is going to fun to watch. Or painful?