But we need to remember that it could be worse. That's right! It could be much worse and although our lives may have been disrupted by the failing job market or the falling stock market we need to remember that as bad as things may be now we are fortunate to have what we do. As Americans we enjoy a standard of living that many can only dream about. Many people in third world countries from Mexico to India would give nearly anything  to simply live in this country; let alone own a home or have a regular job in America, the land of opportunity. While I sympathize with the difficulties that all Americans face in this time of difficulty, I believe that we need to count our blessings, especially now when we are faced with great challenges like the ones we face today.

     I know it can be hard to count your blessings when you can't figure out how you are going to pay the bills but we need to try. The reality is that from air conditioning to shoes on our feet and a thousand others luxuries we enjoy as Americans we have it better than 90% of the world and that is something we ought to be very thankful for. This holiday season there may not be as many gifts under the tree, there may not be as much food in the cupboard, and there may not be as much money in your bank account but there is still plenty to be thankful for. Look around you and consider how much God has blessed you this year and be thankful! Happy Thanksgiving and Merry Christmas!

After the longest presidential campaign in US history America finally spoke and chose Barack Obama to be its 44th president. President-elect Obama faces daunting challenges as he begins his first term following his inauguration on January 20th of 2009. From the economic meltdown to the culture war in this country between the hard left and the hard right to the war with terrorism President-elect Obama seems to have the odds stacked against him. While campaigning Mr. Obama was able to blame George W. Bush for the countries woes but soon he will discover what every American President discovers, the buck stops with the man in charge. It won't take very long before the excitement of having a new president will begin wear off and Obama will find himself pitted against varying interests in this country, some of which supported his candidacy before his election.

While Obama is wildly popular now it is very possible, even quite likely that four years from now he will have considerably less support than he does now. Because even if he governs effectively there is now way  that he will be able to satisfy all competing interests at once, sooner or later he will have to choose sides, take positions, and thus alienate himself from a segment of the US electorate. Which means a President Obama may be more vulnerable in 2012 than the young political phenom was in 2008.Which leads me to ask the following question, "who will the GOP choose to run against Obama in 2012? The names are plentiful ranging from Bobby Jindal (Gov. LA), to Mitt Romney (Former Gov. of MA) to Mike Huckabee (former Gov. or AR) but the favorite is undoubtedly Sarah Palin the Governor of Alaska who ran with Senator McCain in his failed presidential campaign. Now Palin is certainly not a lock for the RNC nomination in 2012, alot can happen in four years, but there is no doubt that Palin currently has a distinct advantage at this time.

Now Palin's detractors suggest that she lacks the intellect and the knowledge to occupy the highest office in the land but I do not agree and more importantly neither does the GOP. In a recent poll by Rasmussen Reports Sarah Palin was seen in a favorable light by 91% of Republicans and Very Favorable by 64%. In addition Palin was seen as the front runner for the nomination in 2012 by 64% of republicans with Huckabee preferred by 12% and Romney by 11%. So in a nut shell Palin has a very good shot at becoming the first female nominee for the Presidency by either party in a general election. And don't sell Palin short she could win if she chooses to run in 2012. I know it’s hard to imagine her defeating the Obama machine but it is not impossible and if anyone could do it my bet would be that it would be Sarah Palin.

Now let me say that Sarah Palin is not ready, at present, to win the nomination. Palin lacks understanding of key policy, judicial, economic, and foreign affairs issues, but these are things that Palin can learn and must master between now and 2010 when she would need to begin her campaign for the presidency. Governor Palin is a smart lady who will be a truly formidable opponent once she has a handle on the complicated issues that face America. Palin is a good decision maker who is also a principled reformer which is exactly what America needs in the Whitehouse. Palin is not someone who is likely to lose her way in the beltway trying to please special interest groups or getting dragged down by the corruption so inherent in the politics of Washington D.C. If Sarah Palin develops into the polished politician that she has the potential to become, while holding on to her folksy attitude and sweet demeanor, she will be a political animal to reckon with in the GOP for years to come and maybe even the first female president of the United States.

In baseball, big league clubs have farm teams where they develop young players until they are ready to play in the majors. I believe that Sarah Palin is one of the GOP's top prospects heading towards 2012. If she follows the model of Ronald Reagan who after losing his bid for the presidency in 1976 mastered the issues and crystallized their solutions into ideas that could be easily understood and communicated in common language Governor Palin has a real shot in 2012. If she works hard and develops her knowledge base and understanding of the key issues, there is no ceiling for someone with her raw talent. The question is will she reach her potential and help to resurrect the GOP? I think she just might.

After the longest presidential campaign in US history America finally spoke and chose Barack Obama to be its 44th president. President-elect Obama faces daunting challenges as he begins his first term following his inauguration on January 20th of 2009. From the economic meltdown to the culture war in this country between the hard left and the hard right to the war with terrorism President-elect Obama seems to have the odds stacked against him. While campaigning Mr. Obama was able to blame George W. Bush for the countries woes but soon he will discover what every American President discovers, the buck stops with the man in charge. It won't take very long before the excitement of having a new president will begin wear off and Obama will find himself pitted against varying interests in this country, some of which supported his candidacy before his election.

While Obama is wildly popular now it is very possible, even quite likely that four years from now he will have considerably less support than he does now. Because even if he governs effectively there is now way  that he will be able to satisfy all competing interests at once, sooner or later he will have to choose sides, take positions, and thus alienate himself from a segment of the US electorate. Which means a President Obama may be more vulnerable in 2012 than the young political phenom was in 2008.Which leads me to ask the following question, "who will the GOP choose to run against Obama in 2012? The names are plentiful ranging from Bobby Jindal (Gov. LA), to Mitt Romney (Former Gov. of MA) to Mike Huckabee (former Gov. or AR) but the favorite is undoubtedly Sarah Palin the Governor of Alaska who ran with Senator McCain in his failed presidential campaign. Now Palin is certainly not a lock for the RNC nomination in 2012, alot can happen in four years, but there is no doubt that Palin currently has a distinct advantage at this time.

Now Palin's detractors suggest that she lacks the intellect and the knowledge to occupy the highest office in the land but I do not agree and more importantly neither does the GOP. In a recent poll by Rasmussen Reports Sarah Palin was seen in a favorable light by 91% of Republicans and Very Favorable by 64%. In addition Palin was seen as the front runner for the nomination in 2012 by 64% of republicans with Huckabee preferred by 12% and Romney by 11%. So in a nut shell Palin has a very good shot at becoming the first female nominee for the Presidency by either party in a general election. And don't sell Palin short she could win if she chooses to run in 2012. I know it’s hard to imagine her defeating the Obama machine but it is not impossible and if anyone could do it my bet would be that it would be Sarah Palin.

Now let me say that Sarah Palin is not ready, at present, to win the nomination. Palin lacks understanding of key policy, judicial, economic, and foreign affairs issues, but these are things that Palin can learn and must master between now and 2010 when she would need to begin her campaign for the presidency. Governor Palin is a smart lady who will be a truly formidable opponent once she has a handle on the complicated issues that face America. Palin is a good decision maker who is also a principled reformer which is exactly what America needs in the Whitehouse. Palin is not someone who is likely to lose her way in the beltway trying to please special interest groups or getting dragged down by the corruption so inherent in the politics of Washington D.C. If Sarah Palin develops into the polished politician that she has the potential to become, while holding on to her folksy attitude and sweet demeanor, she will be a political animal to reckon with in the GOP for years to come and maybe even the first female president of the United States.

In baseball, big league clubs have farm teams where they develop young players until they are ready to play in the majors. I believe that Sarah Palin is one of the GOP's top prospects heading towards 2012. If she follows the model of Ronald Reagan who after losing his bid for the presidency in 1976 mastered the issues and crystallized their solutions into ideas that could be easily understood and communicated in common language Governor Palin has a real shot in 2012. If she works hard and develops her knowledge base and understanding of the key issues, there is no ceiling for someone with her raw talent. The question is will she reach her potential and help to resurrect the GOP? I think she just might.

As a Southern Baptist Pastor who vehemently disagrees with a substantial majority of the theological views and religious practices of Mormonism as a whole, I have to admit that I have become particularly fond of practicing Mormons over the past few years. As a former resident of the great state of Idaho which is predominantly Mormon I have to admit that the people of the LDS church have always impressed me for their kindness and overall decency. Even Mormon missionaries who have knocked on my door (much to my chagrin) before have always been polite and respectful young men and women. But today I have an additional reason to respect the Mormon people; their active role in support of California's constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage which passed on Nov.4th. As a social conservative I have always recognized that Mormons have a lot in common with Evangelical Christians.

     I began to research this conclusion myself to see if my conclusion was a warranted one and here is what I found. In 2004 Kerry was projected to beat George W. Bush in a landslide in the electoral college. The electoral prediction that was widely accepted by major media immediately before the 2004 presidential election was this:

Kerry 311 Bush 227

This prediction was based upon the projection that the youth vote would turn out in record numbers and the un-popular Iraq war would turn the election into a referendum on George W. Bush. But look at what actually happened when everything was said and done it was Bush 286 Kerry 252 and Bush was re-elected. In other words the pundits and pollsters were wrong about the awarding of 59 electoral votes. (see the Princeton University study below). What is fascinating about an analysis of the 2004 election is that we are hearing the same thing from the media now that we did 4 years ago.

     We are told that the youth vote will win the election for Obama, we are told that the Black vote will win the election for Obama, and we are even told that Hispanics and white women will push Obama on to victory. The problem is that the youth vote has NEVER materialized in any election in US history, even during the 60's, the black vote has always strongly favored Democrats(no change here), white women and Hispanics are starting to move towards McCain in several polls and in the end every major pollster is using a much different election turnout model than what is found historically. Ultimately, if the media hype fails to become reality Obama may actually lose this election just like Kerry did four years ago. I think that the polls have been distorted by failed methods and in some cases an outright dishonest approach in order to discourage conservatives and suppress the Republican vote. Only time will tell but I find it quite telling that the RCP polling average of electoral votes is very similar to the projections of 2004 calling 311 Electoral votes for Obama.

     In the end this is going to be a close race regardless of what the media says, all I have to say is don't believe the propaganda, McCain can still win and I think he will.

2004 Election Analysis Princeton University

THE 2004 ANALYSIS

Median state poll outcome, decided voters: Kerry 252 EV, Bush 286 EV (?39 EV MoE)

Popular Margin among decided voters : Bush leads Kerry by 0.8%

State poll median with speculative undecided assignment: Kerry 283 EV, Bush 255 EV

Electoral prediction with turnout: Kerry 311 EV, Bush 227 EV

Real electoral result: Kerry 252 EV, Bush 286 EV.

Since Palin's speech at the Republican convention a month ago Palin has been a lightning rod and a figure of tremendous controversy. People tend to either love Palin or loathe her and their are few opinions inbetween. Her candidacy has energized the conservative base of the Republican party and stirred up the far left of the Democratic party like no VP candidate in American history. Palin has been on the end of relentless attacks and smears since joining McCain on the GOP ticket and as a result the McCain campaign has chosen to limit her exposure to the national media. To make matters worse Palin has been less than impressive on two or three ocassions in mainstream media interviews. In fact two or her exchanges with Katie Couric were an embarrasment to the McCain campaign.

So the question for the GOP is which Sarah Palin will show up tomorrow night? Will it be the strong and confident mother of five who eats mooseburgers and tackles corruption in government or will it be the timid and nervous rookie who couldn't answer a question about her own campaign or provide an example of her running mates regulatory credentials? That remains to be seen. But I would bet that the answer would be the former rather than the latter. I suspect that Palin has been handled poorly by her campaign staff and that she will be freed to be herself tomorrow night. The interesting aspect of this situation is that debates are won based purely upon perception rather than on substance. And low expectations for a debate candidate are an advantage to him or her almost without expcetion.

The presidential debates on Friday are a perfect example of this. Substantively McCain clearly won the last presidential debate but due to his tremendous experience in foreign policy the public perception was that Obama won because he was able to hold his own with an expert like McCain. In addition viewers made comments about how Obama looked younger and more energetic while McCain appeared even older than he is on television during the debate. The public perception of the average American seems to give Palin a distinct advantage in this debate regardless of what the media says. First people expect very little from Palin after her most recent interaction with the press. Second Biden has been in the US Senate for thirty years and has a lifetime of experience. In addition Sarah Palin is young, energetic, and vibrant while Biden is in his golden years not much younger than McCain. If the factors from the last debate apply to the VP debate Biden may have a serious problem.

It is also good to note that Palin was terribly underestimated in her govenors race three years ago by her opponents and proved herself an able and capable debater against some seasoned and polished politicians. I think that very few people give Palin any shot at beating Biden in this debate and that makes her very dangerous. Palin has a razor sharp sense of humor and can be down right surgically precise with her jabs. If she is well prepared for this debate she may cause Biden some real problems. But the converse is also possible. It is possible that Palin was brought into the game too late without adequate preparation and if that is the case she will implode infront of 60 million plus viewers tomorrow evening. But I don't believe that is the case. In fact I think that maybe the reason Palin struggled in her previous interviews is due to the fact that she is working so hard on preparing for her debate with Biden. In addition her lack of media exposure creates a problem of Biden....he knows very little about her because there is so little to reference. So the question is will Palin be an asset or a liability for McCAin?Will we see Palin power tomorrow night on display for the entire world to see? Or will we watch a huge problem unfold for the GOP? I don't know but is sure is going to fun to watch. Or painful?